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An Excercise in the Hypothetical (A "What If?")


SpacyAce2012

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Okay. Time for a little geekish hypothetical discussion regarding Macross.

All hardcore fans know the story. In 1999 A.D., an extraterrestial spacecraft of a military nature crashes on Earth, after causing considerable destruction, ecological upset, and chaos (natural and man-made).

After the nature of the aforementioned craft is confirmed, the formation of a One World Government (by strengthening the U.N.) is carried out. A lot of people are unhappy about this. Thus, the U.N. Wars erupt around the globe. No country, it seems, is spared.

The wars run their course. But as we know from Macross Zero, anti-U.N. activities by armed groups continues to be a problem after the "official" end of the U.N. Wars.

Now for the "What if"..............

Launch Day 2009. The parties and official shindigs are going on all around South Ataria Island.

And the launch of the SDF-1 Macross goes off without a hitch. No Zent fleet shows up in the Solar System. There is no firing of the Main Cannon. There is no Space War One.

Now for the questions. How long would the Earth United Nations Government last in the years afterward? There are still problems with armed groups (as was implied during the original series, in the cover story given to the public). And the whole purpose for a world government was to stand united against alien invasions, without national interests getting in the way. Now, that "bogeyman" didn't materialize in this "what if?" scenario. Let's also say that alien life won't encountered for a long time to come, if ever. Would this experiment in global "unity" last? Or will it be weakened by nations pulling out of the agreement? Maybe crumble altogether? Will public opinion turn against it? Would the Human Race experience more rounds of global warfare, this time fought mostly with Overtechnology enhanced conventional weapon systems and mecha?

Another bad scenario: the U.N. Government becomes dictatorial as a result of opposition. The "New World Order" that 20th Century conspiracy theorists feared becomes a reality, backed by OTM weaponry. And a world-wide civil war erupts as a result.

Or perhaps the U.N. Government is dissolved altogether, and the nation-states go back to minding their own affairs, for the most part. The U.N. goes back to being simply a "world forum".

What are your thoughts on the possible outcomes,folks?

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As wretched and disgusting as it is to speculate upon something as terrifying and abhorrent as the near total destruction of Earth and it's people, the Zentradi probably did more for the racial unity of mankind than all of human history combined.

By wiping out every city, nation, and continent on the planet Earth without prejudice, the remnants of humanity are finally given a fresh start. Naturally, no one "in-story" could have possibly guessed that the survivors would actually prevail in the resultant conflict with the Zentradi, so no one would ever condone it. I personally would rather live with the messed up world we have and take the long way round to unifying the human race, but one cannot deny the tangible results of the Zentradi annihilation of Earth.

There is no more conflict in the Middle East, eastern Europe, or Africa. There is no more aboriginal resentment in North America, Australia, etc. There are no more starving nations across Africa. There are no more first-world countries or super powers promoting their imperialism/globalism. Racial, religious and ideological segregation would be reduced to an all-time low. And for the first time in a long time, human resources would be the most important priority of our race...not wealth, not oil, not gold or diamonds...humans.

History has shown time and again that whenever mankind explores and expands, the struggle for independance and the need for conflict always follow. I've no doubt that the UN government would have faced even greater anti-unity civil conflicts once the migration was made into space.

After Space War One, the biggest concern akin to our current relational difficulties was the assimilation of Zentradi into human society. It's shown even some thirty years later in Macross Plus that Zentradi still suffer discrimination from the humans. It's also revealed that there were still human conflicts during the intervening years. I beleive someone on these boards once mentioned the military records of Isamu and Guld and how not all of the conflicts they fought in were against Zentradi dissidents (anti-U.N. or the like perhaps?). Even so, that sort of unrest is peanuts compared to the state of our planet today.

Edited by Mr March
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With the revelation of the SV-51 in Macross Zero it is made clear where the earth was headed. It is conceivable that there would have been a global scism between two camps. The AUN and the UN (though I doubt the AUN would still call itself that), both armed with OTEC!

It would only be a matter of time before the SV series were given nuclear engines.

I would suspect that with bases on Mars and the Moon and the several satellite bases that at least half the battles would take place in space.

With the UN in control of the SDF-1, it is most likely the AUN would make every effort to capture the SDF-2 on the moon to maintain a balance in power. Otherwise one shot from the Macross's buster cannon and the AUN space fleet is bye bye...

Whether the factions would fracture into allied groups or a couple of Super Power Global Nations, is open ended.

What is sure is that if the Hot war eventually goes cold, it would make the 20th Century cold war look like a picnic, because now it isn't global anymore, but rather system wide.

Depending on how the final fall out is, the Sol system could be peppered with bases and colonies from both sides all over the system.

It is a fertile field for stories that is for sure. B))

Edited by Zinjo
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Yup, and it just happens that the only people left on earth all speak Japanese

Actually the primary language in the Macross universe is English (note all the writing). They just speak Japanese for the sake of the viewing public. Then again, I skirted through, maybe you're mentioning something in this thread.

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good theories guys

sorry to sorta hijack your thread, but I didn't want to create a new one

I don't know if this has been discussed before, but 'WHAT IF':

Isamu and Guld would had both fought the Ghost instead of having Isamu go 'rescue' Myung (she really didn't need any rescue), would they have defeated the Ghost toguether with their combine talents or would one of them still perished having to go beyong the limit?

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I say that the Ghost would have worn the pilots down eventually, and one could assume that the YF's were running low on 'ammo as well (didn't Izzy lose his gunopd?). The limitations of humanoid piloting was given all of the proof it needed in that last battle with the Ghost. This is all hypothetical though, so who knows. What I do know however, is that Myung was a waste of time-that girl had way too much baggage anyway...

Edited by myk
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Oh that's an easy one. "If the Zentraedi never showed up..." then man would still find plenty of reasons to compete for resources--i.e. use racism/nationalism/or some other -ism--to come up with an "excuse" to fight and kill each other. Oh sure, there'd be increased exploration and settlement of space and the like, but in a nutshell: without the aliens, the Macross universe would pretty much be, well--GUNDAM!

...'cept maybe with more music...

...and love triangles...

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I say that the Ghost would have worn the pilots down eventually, and one could assume that the YF's were running low on 'ammo as well (didn't Izzy lose his gunopd?). The limitations of humanoid piloting was given all of the proof it needed in that last battle with the Ghost. This is all hypothetical though, so who knows. What I do know however, is that Myung was a waste of time-that girl had way too much baggage anyway...

Remember, the 19 and 21 have significant energy weapons too.

And pin-point barriers, though I suspect only Guld could use them effectively(I don't think Isamu had hands to spare for barrier disk control).

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That's nothing. I was nuking a potato yesterday, and upon further reading of the instructions, I found that after seven minutes in the microwave you are supposed to "carefully open the wrapper" and "immediately eat" the potato. These people are just begging for a legal war. So to counter your point, I wonder how many of our Earthly idiots would actually do that and suffer severe burns in their mouths simply from reading directions and not using common sense.

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If the Zentraedi didn't show up, I think the end result would have been very much the same. At least in terms of Earth's population being wiped out to near extinction.

I think there would be three major issues in the aftermath of a giant alien space ship crashing on Earth that would catalyze the end of the world.

1) Religion

Organized religion has been used to control people since the beginning of time. I'm not trying to spark a religious debate here, but the undeniable proof of alien life would rattle organized religion down to it's core. People would wonder why they are trudging along through life as good uber consumers jumping from mindless material item after another. They would see that the center does not hold. That living a good life probably doesn't matter, at least in terms of "eternal salvation" I think the breakdown of organized religion would cause mass chaos throughout the world. People, many of them, would finally accept that things don't happen for a reason, that there is no unifying power that has a grand design. That they are just bags of water and bone on borrowed time living in chaos where things happen for no reason at all. Most people cannot handle that reality. So you'd see hysteria. Mass suicides. And the potential for some charismatic super short good public speaker to take hold of the people. I don't know why it works that way, but often the most controversial and destructive leaders in Earth's history have been short guys who can give a really good speech. (Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin, the list goes on and on. )

Well in the 10 years of the reconstruction of the Macross we get no such indication of this. In 10 years this religious abandonment would certainly have already occured by the time of the openning of SDFM, but no mention of it existed.

No doubt some religions would see it as a sign of doom or punishment and others would adapt the reality of alien life into their religious doctrine.

No where in any of the scriptures I've read is it stated that humanity is the only sentient life in the universe. We are the only sentient life on this planet and in this solar system.

You'd be surprised at how resilient and adaptive a people's faiths can be, not all will simply throw their hands up and come to the same conclusions as you.

2) Economic

A ship that large will fundamentally change the Earth's technology. We aren't talking small baby steps, we are talking exponential growth through reverse engineering and research. Consider what fiber optics have done to change the world we live in right now.

Mega corporations will emerge, even bigger than the ones that exist now. Then there will be an implicit relationship between the government/organized crime/major corporations on an unprecedented scale. Far more pervasive than what you see today with the Japanese and the Koreans.

You seem to be attributing the American military industrial complex on the Koreans and Japanese, which is very far from the reality.

Particularly, the Japanese don't have a traditional military. In every sense it is a civil service job that one can be "fired" from, unlike traditional militaries around the world that have a rank and file, with a legislated minimum tour of duty.

But that ship had to land somewhere right? So there will be competing nation states fighting over who gets that ship and who gets the technology first. This would fundamentally change the fragile balance of power that probably kept the SDF Macross universe in some kind of tenous peace. Imagine if during the Cold War, there was a third major superpower. Now imagine the SDF Macross universe if suddenly one or several new superpowers emerged from the aftermath.

Or there'd be two armed camps, one with direct control over the A.S.S. and the other with designs on gaining control of that ship or at least it's technology. It could spark a war or at the very least a new cold war as you describe.

Given the interdependence of the global economy, you'd see a massive ripple effect in every area of the economy. The disparity between rich and poor would grow and then people would have to die.

Possibly, but not all nations run their economies like the U.S. or have the same lack of social progams either.

There is a possibility of a larger gulf between the rich and the poor or the status quo is just as likley as well.

If you have a kid who is a diabetic and you can't get insulin any other way for him, if you have to, you are gonna shoot someone in the back of the head to get it. Crime would grow, it would fill the void that warring governments cannot fill anymore. Black market industries would emerge and criminals would become more organized and sophisticated.

Again, the world nations are not run like America, thus IMO what you describe may occur in the U.S., but not necessarily everywhere else. Any illegal activities would most likely revolve around the theft of OTEC equipment, research and engineering data directly gleened from the reverse engineering of the SDF-1.

The biggest threats would be in space, particularly at Moon Base Apollo, where the SDF-2 was being built.

3) Declining Birth Rates And The Gender/Population Issue.

More war, more economic problems and fewer people will want to bring a child into the world. All of the world's youth will be drafted, mostly young men, to get chewed into the grinder. This would create a major disparity between the number of men and women, obviously shown by the number of women in the SDF crew.

Such a disparity had already ocurred in that many of the soldiers were lost during the UN Wars. Personally I suspect the reason why there were bridge bunnys on the SDF-1 was because it has been medically proven the women multitask better than men, thus they were best suited for the jobs.

More votes, more lobbying power. It's not rocket science, more women means more women in charge and in positions of power. And let's just be perfectly blunt, how often does that work out well for anyone? Look how badly two women screwed up Hikaru, do you think their massive impact on all of human society would fare any better?

Well I doubt that you've experienced a female President, so your opinions are rather skewed on this particular topic. :rolleyes:

What the show does not touch on is how Global could have turned into a power mad dictator. The very survival of the species could have rested on one man and whether he had issues with his parents or not in early life. That prospect is absolutely frightening. And this doesn't even factor in the potential jerkoffs in the pipeline from the civilian aspects of the government.

There is never any indication that Global was anything more than an Admiral/General of the Spacy forces. I assumed that the Mayor of Macross City was elected the first Unity Government president, of the post SW-1 Earth. There was no indication at all that the Macross civilians were under any sort of martial law.

We live in a world where people will eat frozen pizzas right out of the box if you leave them alone long enough. I have to imagine the same kind of mindless stupidity existed in the SDF Macross universe as well.

It isn't the "mindless stupidity" that would wipe out mankind, it is the avarice of men and corporations, the desires of some insecure nations to attempt to "control" others by force and economic means. It is the desire to control, horde and lord over others, technology that could benefit all.

Morgan and Edison were the one's who shut Tessla down, because his inventions threatened their profit margins.

GM was the first to build a viable working electric car that was able to travel at the same speeds as gas powered cars and yet the oil industry effectively shut the production down and had all the cars destroyed because it threatened their monopoly on automotive fuel.

They got wiped out. We are gonna get wiped out. The difference is we are gonna do it slow and painful. As I get older, I am more and more certain of this.

Such an event as the Macross crash would create a lot of international tensions, I have no doubt. Assuming things will unfold in one inflexible manner is a bit arrogant, considering different nations and cultures will react in a myriad of different ways to the event.

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The best reply I can give to that is turn everything off.

Turn it all off for 30 days. All the power. All the running water. All services of all kinds. No cops, no firefighters, no paramedics, no hospitals, no schools, no news, no military, no Internet, nothing. Shut down the US for 30 days all across the board. See what happens.

The country would turn over onto itself. It would make the Crusades look like day camp. Because that's what real people are like when left to their own stupidity.

And this would be without a giant alien spaceship crash landing on Earth to shake apart the fragile balance of power between the current nation states.

If you did that, turned off the lights, half the people on this board would be dead before the month was out. So would most of their families.

(Except maybe Agent One. He'd probably kill people with a sword until his arms got tired.)

I don't doubt the US would implode in that kind of an event... Fear and aggression would explode in every state. In a nation that is probably as well armed as any African civil war ridden country, the blood would probably flow down the streets, literally... <_<

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If the Zentraedi didn't show up, I think the end result would have been very much the same. At least in terms of Earth's population being wiped out to near extinction.

I think there would be three major issues in the aftermath of a giant alien space ship crashing on Earth that would catalyze the end of the world.

1) Religion

Organized religion has been used to control people since the beginning of time. I'm not trying to spark a religious debate here, but the undeniable proof of alien life would rattle organized religion down to it's core. People would wonder why they are trudging along through life as good uber consumers jumping from mindless material item after another. They would see that the center does not hold. That living a good life probably doesn't matter, at least in terms of "eternal salvation" I think the breakdown of organized religion would cause mass chaos throughout the world. People, many of them, would finally accept that things don't happen for a reason, that there is no unifying power that has a grand design. That they are just bags of water and bone on borrowed time living in chaos where things happen for no reason at all. Most people cannot handle that reality. So you'd see hysteria. Mass suicides. And the potential for some charismatic super short good public speaker to take hold of the people. I don't know why it works that way, but often the most controversial and destructive leaders in Earth's history have been short guys who can give a really good speech. (Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin, the list goes on and on. )

Welcome to the Robotech novels of Jack McKinney he's the only one I think who even began to explore this angle in regaurds to the first Robotech War, and I'm not aware of any Macross influences. But McKinney talks about cults who think the Visitor is a test from God, he talks about religion changing in the face of Aliens showing up... both changes to the church as a norm and also cults that erupt.

the only Macross reference I see is the Catholic Church after Kamjumin's attack, and minmay siliently praying for Hikaru's return on Christmas Eve. And this is treated in a way which shows that the preist and the many people outside deffinitly don't approach their faith very differently then before. (BTW Silent Night still has a christian meaning translated into Japanese even though animeigo using the english lyrics was not correct, since they are quite a bit different. Better to use the original german if they arn't going to translate the Japanese.)

Anyway in terms of most scifi I've seen faith adapats, and I think that would be true too... Christianity has certainly adapted and elvoed past the expectations of Jesus's first followers... and I'd say the same is true of any religion they've all faced challanges to their claims and overcome them.

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I really enjoyed Mckinneys novels. i felt like he was a closet macross fan, trying to work within the confines of the universe. a lot of waht he added to the story was really clever and cool. the initial chapters about the crash of the ass-1 and the events that followed were really neat to read.

On topic, i think the "What if the zents never came" hasnt really been touched on yet. All the responses have been about humans knowing they werent coming from the get go. If events unfolded as they did up until the day of the Macross's first flight with no xentrans....then what?>

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My theory is after a year or 2 of patrols un spacy declares macross too costly to run and converts it to a super space liner for tourist to view the solar system up close. the bridge bunnies take a part time job as waitress in bars wearing skimpy swimsuits, hikaru being not driven to join the un spacy, he becomes a taxi driver in some small town, fokker is eventauly discharged due to contracting many types of stds since he is a playboy pilot, the fat guy dies from a heart attack, max stays single and is a ceo of a computer company, misa becomes a high ranking general along with her steady girlfriend claudia who always bugs her to get married.

oh yah global is also discharged to illegaly smuggling contraband at various stops on earth.

forgot:

minmay gets married to some guy she mets while working in the resteraunt that is still on the island and is never noticed by any media scouts (basicly just some girl like all the rest).

Edited by Zentrandude
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Without a Zentradi arrival and the kicking off of SW1?

First off, let me say that I haven't seen Macross Zero. I may miss on some critical details, so correct me if I stray too far off.

Now, if the Zentradi don't show up on the SDF's launch day, it doesn't make a difference.

The UN was to be vigilant and ready for such a conflict. I did not see anything from the SDF show and Mac + stating that the UN was expecting the Zentradi to arrive at a specific time. From what we see in the first episode of SDF, when they did show up on the day of SDF's launch, it was very unexpected and ill-prepared for... like the UN thought they arrived too early! That's why the UN will not lose support if the Zentradi do not show up as they did in the first episode. The evidence was too strong to disregard the possibility of the incursion of powerful, alien forces. It's not everyday where a gigantic spaceship crashlands on Earth and is historically recorded.

The ever looming, possible threat of a powerful alien attack is too strong and the UN will maintain strong support. Again, the evidence alone of powerful, technologically superior opposition is too strong.

There will always be Anti-UN sentiment. You don't have light without shadow. But from I see in the SDF Macross series, the UN by far was the dominant power and I don't hear or see any serious contention against UN power, even after the bombardment of Earth. Yes, there were some riots and problems, but you never, ever, hear of strong and organized resistance against the UN.

Earth must be prepared for the possibility of a Space War against powerful alien forces, always. That is why the UN will only gain strength. There will be outbreaks of Anti-UN dissent, but as time grows, the UN will be stronger to squash it. It will then continue to be ready for a war that could possibly annihalate mankind. To prevent that, the UN forces will be maintained in a strong state of readiness. Maybe, after many, many years have passed, some complacency will set in. But by then, the UN would have mainted such a long duration of power, that it doesn't matter about destabilization by Anti-UN powers.

Edited by Warmaker
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oh yah global is also discharged to illegaly smuggling contraband at various stops on earth.

forgot:

minmay gets married to some guy she mets while working in the resteraunt that is still on the island and is never noticed by any media scouts (basicly just some girl like all the rest).

Except, she had already been noticed by a media scout, remember she had the audition letter she went back for. So her star was already rising, it got delayed but amplified by the space war.

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Except, she had already been noticed by a media scout, remember she had the audition letter she went back for. So her star was already rising, it got delayed but amplified by the space war.

pfft k she becomes a low budget star for tv informercials such as OT thermonuclear lean mean grilling machine and ron popeil pocket fisherman.

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Without a Zentradi arrival and the kicking off of SW1?

First off, let me say that I haven't seen Macross Zero. I may miss on some critical details, so correct me if I stray too far off.

Now, if the Zentradi don't show up on the SDF's launch day, it doesn't make a difference.

Strongly suggest you watch Macross Zero, it substantially changes the back story.

Essentially the AUN is shown to be an armed force complete with variable mecha and a formidable force for the UN Forces to deal with.

The world would have spiraled into an all out war or at the very least a cold war with one side supporting the UN and the other the AUN.

It would likely be fueled by differing ideologies as to how the Earth should utilize the OTEC to deal with the potential alien threat.

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  • 2 weeks later...

If the Zen didn't show up, Hikaru would be working in the circus, Misa would eventually move to Mars to look for her boyfriend, Roy would become Admiral and marry Claudia, and Minmey would go into the porn business.

I think.

VFTF1

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No Zentradi, huh?

Politician 1: Hey do we really need to pay 5x as much for it turn into a mech?

Politician 2: I want that money for my social programs.

[if the rule of thumb is twice as much with half the payload merely to have VTOL capability, five times the cost for the entire thing to transform isn't unreasonable especially with development, initial, and O&M costs all tallied up.]

The VFs become Fs, the designs would actually begin following an efficient use of resources and they'd be better in the long run for it.

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No Zentradi, huh?

Politician 1: Hey do we really need to pay 5x as much for it turn into a mech?

Politician 2: I want that money for my social programs.

[if the rule of thumb is twice as much with half the payload merely to have VTOL capability, five times the cost for the entire thing to transform isn't unreasonable especially with development, initial, and O&M costs all tallied up.]

The VFs become Fs, the designs would actually begin following an efficient use of resources and they'd be better in the long run for it.

That might take decades for the "fear" to subside for that to happen.... A certain president managed to use fear to get two terms... :rolleyes:

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No Zentradi, huh?

Politician 1: Hey do we really need to pay 5x as much for it turn into a mech?

Politician 2: I want that money for my social programs.

[if the rule of thumb is twice as much with half the payload merely to have VTOL capability, five times the cost for the entire thing to transform isn't unreasonable especially with development, initial, and O&M costs all tallied up.]

The VFs become Fs, the designs would actually begin following an efficient use of resources and they'd be better in the long run for it.

AND we'd get more destroids!

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Not necessarily. With no threat on the horizon, and a general switching to cheaper is better, there'd be little incentive to continue development and deployment of Destroids, and we'd see a continued deployment of things like tanks, APCs, and helicopters.

Of course, if the UN Wars continued (or the economy of the UN decided to go the route of the military-industrial economy, and create a war simply to fuel the economy) then there'd be continued development and deployment of Destroids; possibly even VFs. But, there'd still be plenty of tanks, APCs and helicopters. ;)

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How many Tanks, APCs and Helicopters operate in Space?

Mac Zero has distracted most from the fact that by the time of Space War 1 mankind had built bases on both the Moon (Apollo) and Mars (Sara), not to mention how many satellite stations that may have existed that we are not aware of.

That the AUN had already engaged Spacy in stellar combat resulting in the deaths of the personnel from Mars Base Sara as they were evacuating the facility.

Reddsun1 put it best, that a very possible scenario is a Gundam-like enviroment in the solar system with both sides controlling different parts of the system with cold war skirmishes or even all out battles taking place in space itself, not necessarily on any terestrial body.

If the AUN develop a spaceworthy SV series variable fighter, why would they bother trying to control Earth territories when they could control all of the Moon or Mars, et al?

So the development of military hardware would be far from over so long as the the AUN Army (and it's political masters) existed to challenge the UNG & Spacy's territorial borders.

Hence a new cold war.

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I didn't know Ribber (sp?) was dead... I got the impression from SDF M TV that Misa had some hope that he was alive on Mars even though the place was vacated/whiped out - whatever... I thought Misa hoped he might just be alive? ... Or was it that she was just taken in by memories and wanted to see how he lived, what was in his room etc etc?

Sorry for slight Off-top...

VFTF1

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She hoped he was alive. He was killed, along with the rest of the personnel of Mars Base Sara AND the fleet that went to pick them up and return them to Earth, when the Anti-UN destroyed them in their hijacked Oberth destroyer near Earth.

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pfft k she becomes a low budget star for tv informercials such as OT thermonuclear lean mean grilling machine and ron popeil pocket fisherman.

Nah, Minmay would have a couple of hit records, get married to a wanna-be rapper, have two kids, divorce the rapper, then party with Paris Hilton and no underwear, shave her head, and enter rehab. Either that or sue to have the sex video she made removed from the internet.

And the others...

Ichijo Hikaru - president and CEO of the Ichijo Flying Circus, he secretly pines for Minmay, buys her hair on the web auction after she shaves it using the pensions of his employees, bankrupting his company's pension plan. He pleads guilty and is sentenced to sixty years in prison, and is paroled after two years.

Hayase Misa - after a career in the military, she leaves for public office, gets involved in a scandal or two before becoming a radio talk show host.

Roy Focker - gets busted for sexual harassment, flies for JetBlue airlines.

Max Jenius - invents HGH enhancers that prevent aging because he's a genius.

Kakizaki Hayao - dies in a car wreck (some people can't escape their destiny).

Bruno Grobal - retires from active duty and purchases Halliburton.

Claudia LaSalle - enters politics. After a successful run as a congresswoman, she hits a policeman for not recognizing her because she's drawn differently than before (she wasn't wearing her ID). Apologizes and loses her reelection bid.

Kaifun - becomes Minmay's manager and co-star in the sex video (ewww....)

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