Isamu Dyson Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Help!!! My GF is in Shanghai right now and is able to order a few boxes of the Macross Fighter Collection 2 for me. I'm only interested in getting the YF-19. For those who have actually bought these boxes - How many is a safe a bet for me to get at least 1 YF-19. I hear a lot of people getting many VF-1s but rarely the YF-19. I rarely see it for sale in Ebay or Yahoo Auctions Japan. Is is that rare? I'm willing to get 2 maybe 3 boxes anything more is gonna hurt me. She has time only to make an order and recieve once before coming back home. I know it's all random but just thinking percentage wise what's the likelyhood of at least 1 in 2 boxes. There won't be a second chance for me so any advice, information or personal stories in these guys would be greatly appreciated. Thank you~~~ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horatio Positronic Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 (edited) Help!!! My GF is in Shanghai right now and is able to order a few boxes of the Macross Fighter Collection 2 for me. I'm only interested in getting the YF-19. For those who have actually bought these boxes - How many is a safe a bet for me to get at least 1 YF-19. I hear a lot of people getting many VF-1s but rarely the YF-19. I rarely see it for sale in Ebay or Yahoo Auctions Japan. Is is that rare? I'm willing to get 2 maybe 3 boxes anything more is gonna hurt me. She has time only to make an order and recieve once before coming back home. I know it's all random but just thinking percentage wise what's the likelyhood of at least 1 in 2 boxes. There won't be a second chance for me so any advice, information or personal stories in these guys would be greatly appreciated. Thank you~~~ I ended up giving up on finding it in boxes and posted a "want it now" listing on Ebay. I only got one reply and they wanted $75 US (which I'm not proud to admit I paid). Now that I think of it, getting some boxes might not be a bad idea if you sell the ones you don't want on Ebay. If you're getting a good price on the boxes you might make a profit assuming they sell. Edited September 4, 2011 by Horatio Positronic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isamu Dyson Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 (edited) Oh wow $75US that's pretty steep. No question about your love for the YF-19. Just curious about how many did you open to initially search for one? My girl is picking them up for about $45US a box. I think I read somewhere it's a mid to rare find along with the YF-21. The hardest being the VF-25F Tornado. Oddly enough I see a lot of the Tornado online for sale ranging 40-50 bucks. Edited September 4, 2011 by Isamu Dyson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horatio Positronic Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Oh wow $75US that's pretty steep. No question about your love for the YF-19. Just curious about how many did you open to initially search for one? My girl is picking them up for about $45US a box. I think I read somewhere it's a mid to rare find along with the YF-21. The hardest being the VF-25F Tornado. Oddly enough I see a lot of the Tornado online for sale ranging 40-50 bucks. I went through three boxes without finding one before I started my eBay search. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isamu Dyson Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 I went through three boxes without finding one before I started my eBay search. Oh man that's exactly what I'm afraid of. "I only got one reply and they wanted $75 US (which I'm not proud to admit I paid)." That is totally understandable after opening 3 boxes and coming out nada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rabidweezil Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 (edited) When they were released, I bought 2 boxes and ended up with a YF-19 in one of those. You might be able to sell the others from the boxes to MW members considering that series 2 came and went pretty fast and is now discontinued. I for one would jump at the chance to buy a the series 2 secret if you would happen to get one (I believe it's a green "Ranka" de-culture VF-25). This one and one more from series 4 are the only 2 keeping me from having a complete series 1-4 collection Edited September 4, 2011 by Rabidweezil Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenius Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I've been looking for a box of series 2 for the longest time... they seem hard to come by. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost Train Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 (edited) Making some rough assumptions here (as I have no inside knowledge of how these are packed), but obviously the more boxes, the better the chance, but let's look at your odds for getting the YF-19: Number of Possible Different Valkyries: 20 Number of Valkyries in 1 box: 12 Probability that 1 slot in a box does not contain what you want: 95% = (1/20) Probability that all 12 slots does not contain what you want: 54% = (.95)^12 ... so therefore the inverse of 54% is the probability that you will get what you want with 1 box: 46% . Suppose you bought 2 boxes, the probability that you will not get what you want is 29.6% (0.54^2), so the probability that you will succeed with 2 boxes is 70.4%. Making some assumptions which are probably wrong, namely that you can get duplicates (I've only bought one box and didn't get dups). Edited September 5, 2011 by Ghost Train Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mommar Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 (edited) The 19 is in fighter collection 1, not 2, isn't it? It looks like I might be thinking of the wrong fighter collection. Edited September 5, 2011 by Mommar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenius Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 get lots of boxes, once you have your 19 sell me one of the other boxes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horatio Positronic Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 The 19 is in fighter collection 1, not 2, isn't it? It looks like I might be thinking of the wrong fighter collection. In Bandai's 1:250 Macross Fighter Collection the YF-19 is in series 2. You may have been thinking of Yamato's 1:200 Variable Fighter Collection, which has the YF-19 in series 1. These are a lot easier to come by since they were sold in boxes of 10 which came with all 9 of the normal valks (including the YF-19) and 1 "special" (a low-vis VF-1 in either fighter, gerwalk or battroid). I just picked up the YF-19 from the Yamato VFC by itself the other day for about $11 on Ebay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isamu Dyson Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 I for one would jump at the chance to buy a the series 2 secret if you would happen to get one (I believe it's a green "Ranka" de-culture VF-25). This one and one more from series 4 are the only 2 keeping me from having a complete series 1-4 collection No problem...Not looking to collect them just want the YF-19 maybe the YF-21 too. All the other rare ones I couldn't care less. So if I happen to get that Ranka one - I'll definitely PM you. Anything YF-19 or Macross Plus related items your willing to trade? Making some rough assumptions here (as I have no inside knowledge of how these are packed), but obviously the more boxes, the better the chance, but let's look at your odds for getting the YF-19: Number of Possible Different Valkyries: 20 Number of Valkyries in 1 box: 12 Probability that 1 slot in a box does not contain what you want: 95% = (1/20) Probability that all 12 slots does not contain what you want: 54% = (.95)^12 ... so therefore the inverse of 54% is the probability that you will get what you want with 1 box: 46% . Suppose you bought 2 boxes, the probability that you will not get what you want is 29.6% (0.54^2), so the probability that you will succeed with 2 boxes is 70.4%. Making some assumptions which are probably wrong, namely that you can get duplicates (I've only bought one box and didn't get dups). Thank you for taking the time to do the math for me. Yes - numbers add up and a pretty decent percent chance for me to get one assuming there are no duplicates in one box. When I get them I'll definitely put your numbers to the test and report back what I got for each box to confirm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isamu Dyson Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 get lots of boxes, once you have your 19 sell me one of the other boxes! Hi Jenius. My goal is to get 2 YF-19s. For budget reasons and perhaps luggage space issues I can only get 4 boxes - maximum. If by some flook of a chance I happen to get 2 YF-19s before having to open another box - You'll be the first in line to get it. I assume you would want a complete whole box no sealed singles if it comes down to the last box? Also by any chance do you know the approximate size and dimension for a complete box? My GF may actually break down and draw for me to save her luggage space so you may need to reply back to me what exactly you are looking for. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valk009 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 You should do fine with two boxes, unless your are really unlucky! The second series is perhaps the rarest of all four and funny that you are still able to order so many boxes. There is only like one shop over here which still carries a full set and some loose ones (of course no YF-19!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isamu Dyson Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 You should do fine with two boxes, unless your are really unlucky! The second series is perhaps the rarest of all four and funny that you are still able to order so many boxes. There is only like one shop over here which still carries a full set and some loose ones (of course no YF-19!). Mainland China my friend. There is more of a demand in HK so things get snagged up quickly there but not so much in China. There is no store in Shanghai surprisingly that carries a decent, if any amount of Macross stuff however there is a few that offers online shopping for them. Some one is fishing off the Yamato and Bandai factories over there. So it doesn't surprise me when I came across the posting for Collection 2. Interesting Story: An owner of a Japanese Toy Store here in Vancouver mentioned to me about how difficult it is to supply Macross 1/60s toy line due to competitive prices offered online - specifically HK which gets them from China. So if anyone want a Yamato cheap go buy from HK. If you want them cheaper get it from China. I saw a couple of VT-1s, VF-1D and double nuts for about $120US each. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rabidweezil Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 No problem...Not looking to collect them just want the YF-19 maybe the YF-21 too. All the other rare ones I couldn't care less. So if I happen to get that Ranka one - I'll definitely PM you. Anything YF-19 or Macross Plus related items your willing to trade? For macross plus trades...hmmm...I don't have a lot. I have the 3 GNU's. The YF-19 & YF-21 3 Piece Sets from Yamato VFC series 1&2. And a 1/60 YF-19 first release that was the unfortunate victim of a failed "pro-modellers wash" experiment. As well as plain old money Here is a pic of the one I am after courtesy of Horatio Positronic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenius Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Hi Jenius. My goal is to get 2 YF-19s. For budget reasons and perhaps luggage space issues I can only get 4 boxes - maximum. If by some flook of a chance I happen to get 2 YF-19s before having to open another box - You'll be the first in line to get it. I assume you would want a complete whole box no sealed singles if it comes down to the last box? Also by any chance do you know the approximate size and dimension for a complete box? My GF may actually break down and draw for me to save her luggage space so you may need to reply back to me what exactly you are looking for. Cheers Collection 4 boxes are 25x15x10CM. The ideal would be to get an unopened box but if you have to open all of them in search of your YF-19s I'm sure we could still work something out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isamu Dyson Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 Alrighty - 3 votes for 2 boxes and 3 votes for 5+, I think I'm going to play it safe and get 4 boxes. Thank you all for your insights - if any one has any more stories about these guys please let me know. Rabidweezil - I'll be on a lookout for the Ranka to help complete your collection Jenius - Hopefully it won't come down to me opening the last box. Whatever is left over I will contact you. As for all the other singles I'll most likely post them in the for sale section at the end of this month. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horatio Positronic Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Alrighty - 3 votes for 2 boxes and 3 votes for 5+, I think I'm going to play it safe and get 4 boxes. Thank you all for your insights - if any one has any more stories about these guys please let me know. Rabidweezil - I'll be on a lookout for the Ranka to help complete your collection Jenius - Hopefully it won't come down to me opening the last box. Whatever is left over I will contact you. As for all the other singles I'll most likely post them in the for sale section at the end of this month. Cheers Good luck! Hopefully this works out for all 3 of you. This thread got me wondering. Has anybody else completed a full set of all 4 MFC volumes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isamu Dyson Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 (edited) Yes!!! Got a call from girlfriend in China - First box - First package - YF-19. She's got some lucky hand. Unfortunately no Ranka Special in that box. She will hold off on opening the other 3 so that I may get a chance to get into it. Horatio Positronic: I have a picture of someone on this board who looks like he/she has the whole collection - please confirm. I'm sorry I don't know who to give credit to but awesome dedication and I wonder how many boxes had to be opened for it. Edited September 9, 2011 by Isamu Dyson Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rabidweezil Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Yes!!! Got a call from girlfriend in China - First box - First package - YF-19. Hurray! ...unfortunately no Ranka Special in that box. ahhhh... Horatio Positronic: I have a picture of someone on this board who looks like he/she has the whole collection - please confirm. I'm sorry I don't know who to give credit to but awesome dedication and I wonder how many boxes had to be opened for it. That looks like a complete Set 1-3, but there is nothing there from 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isamu Dyson Posted September 9, 2011 Author Share Posted September 9, 2011 Hey Rabidweezil Just curious but isn't the Ranka one your looking for supposed to have a transparent blue stand? I'll double check with her cuz that's what I told her to look out for and make sure not to open the bag or crush it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rabidweezil Posted September 9, 2011 Share Posted September 9, 2011 Hey Rabidweezil Just curious but isn't the Ranka one your looking for supposed to have a transparent blue stand? I'll double check with her cuz that's what I told her to look out for and make sure not to open the bag or crush it No, I don't believe they started with the transparent blue stands until series 3. It should have a regular black stand like in the pic in my post above Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horatio Positronic Posted September 12, 2011 Share Posted September 12, 2011 Yes!!! Got a call from girlfriend in China - First box - First package - YF-19. She's got some lucky hand. Unfortunately no Ranka Special in that box. She will hold off on opening the other 3 so that I may get a chance to get into it. Horatio Positronic: I have a picture of someone on this board who looks like he/she has the whole collection - please confirm. I'm sorry I don't know who to give credit to but awesome dedication and I wonder how many boxes had to be opened for it. Yup, that's my collection, but I took that before MFC4 came out. Between all 4 series I had maybe 7 boxes. I got a lot of the ones I was missing individually on Ebay (or through awesome Macross World members). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isamu Dyson Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 Yup, that's my collection, but I took that before MFC4 came out. Between all 4 series I had maybe 7 boxes. I got a lot of the ones I was missing individually on Ebay (or through awesome Macross World members). Props to your collection and 7 boxes sounds just about right per series. Next post I will share my experience with 4 boxes. Also thanks for taking the time to take a picture - it really helps to verify each piece with a body of index. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isamu Dyson Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 Sigh~~~~~~~~~~~~ Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~!!!!!!! 4 boxes and just 1 YF-19. Jenius - So sorry but we opened all the boxes. If you have some sort of contact in China who is willing to purchase for you and ship to you - I can send you the url where my GF got it. It's kind of a craigslist/ebay in China. Rabidweezil - So sorry but I also came nil for your Ranka. I've seen it for sale in yahoo auction japan store - 1 for about 5000 yen and another for a ridiculous price of 20000 yen. My story: GF anxiously opens the first box in China and the very first package is a YF-19. Awesome I thought to myself. So the likely hood of 1 more in 3 should be pretty good right? Boy was I wrong. She brings me back the other 3 boxes and as we took turns opening them we got a couple of surprises - 1 YF-21, cool I could display that. Suddenly another box another YF-21 and then finally the last box another YF-21. Can you say close call but no cigar. "F" i thought to myself - $200 smacks for 1 YF-19. I was also keeping in mind about 2 members as we were opening them. I was hoping to get 1 before having to attack the last box for jenius. I was also looking not just for the YF-19 but the Secret Ranka for Rabidweezil. All in all I should be happy I got one at least but it didn't come cheap. Seriously aside from the secret chases I think the YF-19 has gotta be the hardest thing to get in any series of the the Fighter Collection. I rarely see it on yahoo auctions japan and I've never seen it on ebay. The Tornado was probably the second nicest find. In conclusion for my experience - 4 boxes "should" be good enough to at least complete the general series excluding the secret chase (extreme total luck I presume). As for any one else thinking about hunting a YF-19 by boxes like me - Forget it - prepare to either bask in glory with hands up high or knees on the ground saying Why and F. Here is the list of what I got in 4 boxes: VF-2SS: 4 VF-27B: 4 VF-27Y: 2 VF-25A: 4 RVF-25: 2 YF-25: 2 VF-0S: 2 VF-25S: 3 VF-25FT:1 VF-1S: 3 VF-1AA: 2 VF-1A: 3 VF-1AHi:1 VF-1AMx:2 VF-1AKz:2 VF-22S: 3 YF-21: 4 YF-19D: 3 YF-19: 1 Anyone who has an extra YF-19 please PM for possible trade or sale option. To anyone who has a complete set of series 1 to 4 including chases - hats off to you In a week's time if I don't have any cards to play with for a YF-19 - I'll be posting them for sale in MW. Cheers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rabidweezil Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 No worries Isamu, I really appreciate you trying. Thank you. You should be able to get rid of most of your spares. When I posted some from various series in the for sale section, the ones from 2 where the first to go. Hopefully it works out the same for you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isamu Dyson Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 No worries Isamu, I really appreciate you trying. Thank you. You should be able to get rid of most of your spares. When I posted some from various series in the for sale section, the ones from 2 where the first to go. Hopefully it works out the same for you Thanks Rabidweezil. Yeah most likely I'll do that. I'm just sorry I could'nt help you out in just getting one step closer to finishing your collection. I'm a little surprised with 4 boxes I didn't even come up with 1 ranka special. Bandai really knows how to rake it in with the collectors. To Horatio - I can now confirm that spending $75.00 for 1 - YF-19 is better than shelling out $200.00 =( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jenius Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 i'm still interested in buying a box, even if they're open, will send you a pm. Sadly I have no chinese connections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mommar Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 I'd take what's left of a box. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horatio Positronic Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Props to your collection and 7 boxes sounds just about right per series. Next post I will share my experience with 4 boxes. Also thanks for taking the time to take a picture - it really helps to verify each piece with a body of index. It was actually about 7 boxes total. Maybe 8 tops, my memory is bad. I got a loooot of individual ones on Ebay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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